Google CEOエリック・シュミット:「次の巨大ビジネスはディスプレイ広告」、モバイルも成長中(4Q収支報告会見)

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iTunes、今年の夏にもクラウド化したiTunes.comへ移行か?

先ほどGoogleが第4四半期の収支を発表した。収益は17%増の$6.7B(67億ドル)、非会計基準利益は35%増の2.2B(22億ドル)、1株当たり$6.79だった。これはアナリストたちの一致した予想、$6.50/株を大きく上回る。発表スライドを上に貼ってある。

年間収益は$23.65B(236億5000万ドル)で、2008年の$21.8B(218億ドル)を上回った。2009年度の純益は$6.5B(65億ドル)だった。

Googleの同四半期収益の内訳は、66%($4.4B[44億ドル])が自社サイト、31%($2B[20億ドル])が広告ネットワーク経由のAdSenseによるものだ。残りの3%はライセンシング他の事業による。Google自社サイトにおける広告収益が16%増、AdSenseによる収益の伸びは21%とさらに早い。

広告の有料クリックは対前年比13%増、2009年第3四半期からも9%増えている。クリック単価は前年比5%増、前期比2%増だ。

同社の年度末現金残高は$24.5B(245億ドル)、フルタイム従業員は1万9835名(2009年9月30日から170名増)だった。

以下は私のライブ会見でのメモ。

CEO Eric Schmidt:

総合的にみて業績には非常に満足している。今もエンジン全開。投資を強化。検索の再発明を続ける。月に1社のペースで買収を行う。

Jonathan Rosensweig:

2009年の当社の戦略は、中核である検索、広告、ディスプレイ広告の強化だった。Chrome[及びAndroidその他新製品]への投資も。社内ではこれを「More wood behind fewer arrows」アプローチと呼んでいる。【SchmidtがSun Microsystems時代に掲げたスローガン “All the wood behind one arrow”(仮訳:一点集中)をもじったものと思われる】

AdWordsに新しいフロントエンドを導入

Android機は、1機種から始まって今や20機種
Doubleclickが完全に統合され、ディスプレイ広告も好調

Chrome OSの公開

多くの企業がクラウドに参入した

YouTubeの収益化が順調

一番重要なのは、検索事業が好調なこと。それと、音楽検索とリアルタイム検索を開始したこと

2010年は投資を強化する。検索を重点的に。結果までの時間が鍵。ユーザーにいかに早く結果を届けられるか。広告の種類も増やす。

検索と検索広告に加え、いくつかの大きなトレンドがインターネットを変える。

第一にソーシャル。ソーシャルと言うと、人はソーシャルネットワークを思い浮かべるが、ウェブ全体がソーシャルになってきている。レストランのレビューは、友人から聞いな方が信用できる、だからランクを上げるべき、ただし自分にとってだけ。

買い物情報もネットで集めるようになってきた。

パーソナル化、モバイル。モバイルウェブをPCウェブより良くできる可能性があると思っている。

企業がクラウドに移行するのは安いからではなく、何かを行うために優れた方法だから。

Q&A【以下、原文】

Q: Sequential growth is similar to 2007. Are overall search spending trends back to normal? Also materiality of mobile?

A: We won’t comment on mobile. In general, you see throughout second half of 2009 a recovery. Finance is not as strong as other areas. Make progress with all the other verticals.

Q: Could you rank key monetization changes you made in 4Q. How do you think about mobile, will it drive P&L>

Jonathan: Quality Qs. Q4 tends to be a modest quarter for us. We try to freeze the launches after Thanksgiving to give advertisers stability during the holidays. RPM was stable. All Advertisers are on AdWords 3, makes them more effective in their biding efforts.

the main thing in mobile is advertisers are getting better figuring out what works on mobile, including a phone number or address is increasing clickthrough rates.

A: two pronged strategy on mobile. Driving product innovations, Goggles, Voice navigations, that drives monetization.

Schmidt: the China stuff has been covered. to review, we reported there was a cyber attack on Google, still under investigation, we made technical changes to prevent a future attack, also found monitoring of civil rights, third, Google will no longer be willing to apply the censorship rules in China. Our business is not changed yet. We will change that soon. {i.e. still censored results for now]

Q: you mentioned 5X increase in mobile search. What kind of revenue per search are you getting?

Jonathan: The new formats, the targeting tools and the reporting we are giving to advertisers is making a difference. Click to call, letting advertiser target specific high-end devices or carriers, so seeing improved monetization across mobile.

Q: How are the new ad formats doing?

A: Ad formats we launched in Q4 have been very successful.

Jonathan: try typing Sears into Google. You’ll see site links, Deal of the day, Tools section, better experience for both the advertiser and the user.

Q: Updated metrics o how much of YouTube is being monetized. before you said it had tripled.

A: YouTube has gone from a nice ti have to an essential part of a media campaign. Homepage was nearly sold out in Q4, running ads in 20 countries worldwide, to give you a perspective on how successful YouTube has been.

Q: Ad spending trends by advertising size?

A: Larger advertisers continue to increase spending, retailers was strong during the holidays. Continue to work with smaller advertisers, a seasonal issue where we see larger advertisers outperform smaller ones.

Q: Rank your no-search businesses in terms of revenue and growth potential.

A: Depends on whether you look at absolute growth or relative. Smaller ones are growing faster. We have said is that our next huge business is display. If I were to talk about absolute numbers that would be No. 1. But smaller ones growing faster. No. 1 there is mobile. We have a lot of evidence that people are moving towards data-friendly mobile devices quite quickly. 2010 will be a year of significant mobile revenue growth.

In terms of Apple, as a former board member I have a special place in my heart. We have some things coming up with them, but also compete.

Q: Do you need to diversify away from advertising revenues. Mobile strategy is perplexing, network partners and Nexus One.

Schmidt: We are not immune to global economic trends. I think we fared better than others. We are trying to use GPS data to target by location and have a lot of initiatives, but the biggest area will be in display. We have quiet a healthy enterprise business which will grow rapidly over the next few years. We will be one of the leaders there.

I think there has been a lot of confusion about that. What the Nexus One is rally about is a new way to purchase a phone. Nexus One is the first of a long line. You will see other manufacturers. you can buy and provision a phone.

Q: Is Bing having an effect on cost per click? Also taxes?

A: We think our CPCs generally are not impacted by what other competitors do. They are set by an auction model between customers.

Q: what will Nexus One Margin be?

A: we don’t track margins for businesses. [measure success in other ways, the margin will be what it will be]

Q: TAC issues, how big is display today?

A: TAC trending down due to mix issues. In the case of display, the few facts we shared already are worth mentioning. It is a $17B industry. TV industry is $117B industry, shifting to the Internet, So no doubt a huge pie to go after. We don’t comment on specifics of our market share, but a big focus for us with a lot of runway.

Q: We are seeing from third party data that iPhone is 50% of mobile traffic is that what you are seeing? Can you give us sense of percentage of advertisers

Schmidt: We are not going to speculate market share of Apple’s mobile products. As far as I can tell our relationship with Apple is very stable.

Q: Ad shifts between search and display?

Schmidt: My sense is they don’t shift, they add. We do it better than anyone else and continue to win all of those deals.

[原文へ]

(翻訳:Nob Takahashi)