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ジョブズ、2010年Q1収支報告で:Appleは今や$50ビリオン超企業、今週は重大な新製品

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Screen shot 2010-01-25 at 1.46.37 PMAppleが2010年Q1の収支決算を発表し、予想どおりその内容はすばらしいものだった。数字についてはこの後すぐに触れるが、恐らくもっと注目すべきなのは、リリース中に引用されたこのSteve Jobsの2つの言葉だろう。

当社の四半期売上を年間に換算すれば、なんと今やAppleは$50ビリオン(500億ドル)企業である。

そして、

今年当社が発売を予定している新製品群は非常に強力だ。まず今週、私たちが本当に楽しみにしている重要な新製品を発売する。

これが何を意味するかは、みなさんご存じだと思う

当四半期のAppleの財務状態に関しては、MacおよびiPhoneが引き続き好調だったのに対して、iPodの売上は減少を続けている。iPhoneの数字が最も目立っており、当期だけで870万台を販売し、前年同期から台数で100%の伸びを示した。前四半期からも17.6%増加している。またAppleは336万台のMacを販売し、前年同期を33%上回った。iPodの販売台数は2100万台で、前年から8%減となった。

全体では同社の収益は$15.68B(156億6000万ドル)、純利益$3.38B(33億8000万ドル)だった。これをみると、収益は一年前から$4B(40億ドル)、利益は$1B(10億ドル)増加している。売上総利益率も40.9%で、前年の37.9%を上回った。

またAppleは当期$5.8B(58億ドル)の現金を得たことを発表し、この結果同社の資金は、ごくわずかで$40B(400億ドル)に届くところとなった。

もう一点注目すべきは、Appleが当期からiPhone、Apple TV等の購読型デバイスに新しい会計システムの採用を決定したことだ。前期の収支会見の中でAppleは、開始が義務付けられるのは年末までなので、まだ始めるかどうかわからない、と語っていた。しかし、この新方式の導入によってAppleの報告形態は「著しく変化した」。

収支会見での私のライブメモを下に貼っておく(要約)

出席者:Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer、Apple COO Tim Cook、およびApple財務担当。

  • PO: 過去最高の四半期だった。MacとiPhoneで新記録を達成。
  • 新しい会計基準を採用した
  • 収益が82%増。過去最高を大きく上回った。
  • 営業利益率も当社の過去最高。
  • 1株当たり利益は$3.57。
  • Macの販売台数は336万台。従来の記録を30万台以上、上回った。
  • ポータブルの販売は堅実、前年比18%増。
  • デスクトップは新型iMacのおかげで大幅売上増。
  • 当期の教育関系は非常に好調だった。
  • 音楽関連製品
  • iPod 2100万台。昨年より少ない。従来型iPodは減っているが、iPod Touchが引き続き好調に伸びている。収益の伸びはそのため。
  • 米国内MP3プレーヤーのシェアは依然として70%以上。海外シェアも獲得し続けている。
  • iTunes Storeは新記録達成。最大のオンラインカタログ。1100万曲、映画8000本、うち2000本がHD。
  • App Storeのダウンロード数は30億回以上。
  • iPhone 870万台。 – 前年比100%増
  • 当期中に、世界でキャリアー17社が加わった。
  • 86ヵ国でiPhoneを販売
  • 日本、英国、オーストラリア、フランス、ドイツの成長が著しい。
  • フォーチュン200企業の70%が、従業員にiPhoneを配布している。
  • 小売:収益$1.97B(19億7000万ドル)、13%増。
  • Macの販売の約半数が新規ユーザーへ。
  • 当期中に新店舗10店オープン。パリのルーブル内にも。
  • 10ヵ国、283店舗。
  • 2009年中に100回の改装。
  • 1店当たり平均売上$7.1M(710万ドル)
  • 店頭来客数記録更新。
  • 2010年中に40~50新店舗開設。半数は海外に。
  • 現金:現在$39.8B(398億ドル)。$34B(340億ドル)から増加。
  • 投資はすべて資本を維持するためのもので、質の高い投資。
  • 新会計基準に伴い、2007年に遡って数値を修正(iPhoneとApple TVの販売を開始した年)。
  • 新方式では、iPhoneとApple TVの繰延収益が遥かに少なくなる。
  • 販売時点でハードウェアおよびソフトウェア、これに将来のソフトウェアアップデートが加わる。 アップグレード価格はiPhoneが$10、Apple TVが$25。これは即日適用される。
  • 一連の新ルールによって、教育関係収益なども変更される。
  • 3月末締四半期の展望:$11~$11.4B(110~114億ドル)、前年同期は$9B(90億ドル)(Appleは常に控え目な数字を出す)。
  • 当期の純利益成長率は50%。

Q&Aセッション(原文のまま)

  • Before the economic slowdown, Macs were growing faster (40+%) – should they continue in the new ranges?
  • Tim Cook: At 33% growth rate we’re 2x the market. In some international markets Mac growth is over 40%. Australia up over 70%. China almost 100%. These are our best products we’ve shipping.
  • 40% iPhone users are on AT&T – the bad press impacts you right? What are the benefits?
  • TC: AT&T is a great partner. We’ve been working with them since before the first iPhone. It’s important to remember their usage numbers – higher than any carrier in the world. In the vast majority of locations, they give a great experience. But they have acknowledged issues in some cities – we have personally reviewed their plans to make things better.
  • Gross margin with the old method would have been higher right?
  • PO: Our actual revenue exceeded the guidance we gave by far under the old method. Mac and iPhone fueled this, but iPod touch up 55% as well. Pleased with how fast our teams got up to speed on the new rules.
  • Which component prices will be up next quarter?
  • TC: Market is constrained in DRAM – which will drive prices higher.
  • Does guidance include unannounced products this quarter?
  • PO: I think you’re alluding to our event on Wed. Nothing to share today – stay tuned.
  • Now that the iPhone has been around a few years, can you forecast?
  • TC: 2.7 million units in the channel at the end of the quarter.
  • PO: For seasonal: Macs we expect a decline next quarter. For iPods we’ll see a decline too and it may be bigger than we’ve seen before. For iPhone we should see a dip too quarter-to-quarter.
  • Question about cash generation – will it change?
  • PO: I don’t see it changing. We’re very good at managing that stuff.
  • Can you talk about China and the iPhone? Did it meet expectations? Better this year?
  • TC: We usually don’t disclose units by country. But I will here. We started at the end of October/beginning of November. Earlier this month we passed the 200,000 unit mark that we’ve activated. We’re very focused on point of sale and customer experience, so we’re moving slow. We’re focused on the long term in that market. I won’t forecast on new partners, but we’re happy with China Unicom.
  • Can you comment on iPhone inventory comfort levels? You were worried previously.
  • TC: Channel inventory grew by 230,000 units to the 2.7 million level, which we’re comfortable with. I won’t put a target of 4-6 weeks on iPhone, Mac is 4-5 weeks, iPod is 4-6 weeks. But we’re seeing great expansion for the iPhone. And launching with big countries like China.
  • Any update on the Nokia lawsuit? Is Apple at any risk?
  • TC: We can’t comment on pending litigation.
  • iPhone app approval process is under fire. Is it the model itself with you as the gatekeeper?
  • TC: We have over 100,000 apps in the store – 90% are approved within 14 days of submission to put it in perspective. It’s about protecting consumer privacy, and to protect children – pornography is rejected outright. But most rejections are bugs in the code itself. This is to protect the customers and the developer. The noise is much higher than the reality. We’re doing pretty good.
  • Have you received feedback from iPhone owners who buy at stores about the method?
  • TC: I haven’t.
  • Everyone knows you’re going to be unveiling something exciting soon. How do you feel about new product opportunities ahead? Will there be a new iPhone, iPod, Mac?
  • TC: “I wouldn’t want to take away your joy of surprise on Wednesday when you see our latest creation.”
  • I want to revisit China and emerging markets from a broader perspective.
  • TC: We’ve just gotten going in China, and I’m really excited. Average income isn’t as high as the U.S. and the European markets, but there is a good size middle-class. We’re also learning about Brazil. 58% of our revenue last quarter was from outside the United States. And our growth rate is much higher.
  • What about non-retail store cap ex?
  • PO: $1.9 billion in 2010, unchanged from what we said a quarter ago.
  • Can you provide more color from developers and customers in the App Store?
  • PO: For competitive reasons we don’t want to share much of what you want to know. I will say we are way ahead of our competitors with 100,000 apps. It was a key reason why iTunes set a record in the quarter.
  • Can you talk about corporate iPhone usage? Are new apps helping that?
  • TC: Early to comment on the halo from the iPhone to the Mac. That did exist with the iPod. iPhone saw a big jump in acceptance in corporate environments with the iPhone 3GS. 70% of the Fortune 100 are piloting or deploying the iPhone. That’s great when we’ve been in the business only 2.5 years. We feel great about it.
  • Have you seen a change in financial model when you move beyond one carrier for iPhone?
  • TC: In the countries we have done that in, the sales are incremental as we ad carriers. We have multiple in the UK and France – and the numbers are good. Other countries as well. In most cases we’ve selected countries that we thought it would be helpful to have multiple carriers in.
  • Anything you’re doing for corporate growth of the iPhone?
  • TC: We’ve done a lot in the software with the iPhone OS. We’ve also added sales staff to help the carrier staff. So yes, this is a key focus.
  • Can you talk about the acquisitions of Lala and Quattro? Will there be services element to Apple’s business?
  • PO: We acquired Quattro to offer our developers a seamless way to make money. We occasionally acquire small companies from time to time for their tech and talent.
  • Will tax rates affect things?
  • PO: We did have a lower tax rate for this quarter. We expect it to be around 29% in 2010. It’s down a point due to foreign earnings.
  • Talk about the cash?
  • PO: I don’t really have a change in philosophy there.
  • What about App Store revenue?
  • PO: iTunes and App Store are still running “a bit over break-even.” We’re investing a lot in these stores – that’s where the revenue is going.
  • What would revenue have been under the old practice?
  • PO: I didn’t say, and that’s not something we’re going to spend time on working out. Half of the huge rev growth was driven by the accounting change.
  • What role will mobile advertising have on the business going forward? What about Google?
  • PO: We work with Google in some areas, and compete with them in others. I think mobile advertising is in its infancy. With the great folks we bought at Quattro, we look forward to giving our developers a great way to earn money. I don’t know how big it will actually be, but we’re working hard on it.
  • What are you seeing the Pro segment?
  • TC: We saw a small year-over-year in Pro software sales (Aperture, etc). I would still describe that as an economically challenged area currently.
  • What are you thoughts on education?
  • K-12 and higher ed in the US was up 16% year over year – which is the best rate we’ve seen since the recession began.

And that’s a wrap.

[原文へ]

(翻訳:Nob Takahashi)