Apple、驚愕の2011年1Q:収益$26.7B、利益$6B、iPad 733万台、iPhone 1624万台

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Appleには波乱の連日だった。昨日(米国時間1/18)CEO Steve Jobsが病気療養休暇を公表した。その結果株価は今日急落したが、盛り返して前日比2%強で引けた。しかし、このニュースには誰もが励まされるはずだ。Appleは、2011年第1四半期(年末商戦期)の収支を発表し ― 誰もが予想したとおり、すごい結果だった。

どうすごいのか。まず、収益で過去最高の四半期を記録した前期($20.34B[203億4000万ドル])、Appleは次期収益を$23B(230億ドル)と予測した。しかし、Appleが常に控え目な数字を出すことを知るウォール街は、収益$24.38B(243億8000万ドル)程度と予想した。実際は? $26.74B(267億4000万ドル)。

1株当たり収益のウォール街予想は$5.38(Appleの予測$4.80を大きく上回る)。実際の数字は$6.43だった。四半期純益は$6B(60億ドル) ― 前期Appleが塗りかえた$4.3B(43億ドル)の記録を優に上回った。

製品別にみると、Appleが販売したiPhone 1624万台は同社の新記録。恐らくもっと印象的なのは、iPadを733万台売ったことだろう ― 前期から300万台増。

Appleは同四半期中、Macを413万台、iPodを1945万台売った。Macの販売も新記録で前年同期比23%増(ただし一部の予想をわずかに下回った)。一方iPodの販売台数は前年比7%減で下降を続けている。

総利益率も前年同期をわずかに下回る傾向が続いている。前年同期の40.9%に対して今期は38.5%だった。これは、いかにiPadがよく売れているかに深く関わっているに違いない ― AppleはiPadの価格を通常の利幅よりもかなり低く設定している。

これらの数字に関してJobsはこう言っている、「驚くべきホリデーシーズンだった。Mac、iPhone、iPadの販売台数で新記録を達成した。われわれは今年も、待望のVerizon版iPhone 4をはじめ、すばらしい製品をお送りするために総力を挙げていく

Appleは次四半期の収益を$22B(220億ドル)、1株当たり収益を$4.90と予測している。

まもなく収支会見が始まる。以下にライブログを載せる:

Peter Oppenheimer、Apple CFO

  • 今期はAppleの歴史上最高の台数のMac、iPhone、iPadsを販売した。
  • 収益、利益ともに新記録を達成
  • 純益6B、従来の記録を$1.7B超えた
  • Mac 413万台、前年比23%増、PC市場全体の8倍の成長
  • アジアと日本では50%増。新MacBook AirとProの需要が大きい
  • Macの流通在庫は3~4週間分
  • Mac App Store  – 1月6日公開 – は90ヵ国で利用可能。1,000以上の無料および有料アプリ。ユーザーの反応に大変満足している。1日に100万ダウンロード。
  • iPod 1900万中(昨年は2100万台)。iPod touchは前年比27%増
  • 米国MP3プレーヤー市場でのシェアは未だに70%以上
  • iPodの流通在庫は4~6週間分
  • iTunes Storeの収益は$1.1B。ビートルズが来た。
  • iPhone 1620万台。前年比86%増。(全世界でのスマートフォンの成長率は70%)
  • iPhoneおよびアクセサリーの売上げが$10.47B。
  • 90ヵ国に185のキャリアー
  • アジアと日本では前年比2倍以上の増
  • iPhoneの流通在庫は350万台
  • Verizonは9300万人のユーザーに向けてiPhone 4を提供
  • iPad 730万台販売
  • 現在46ヵ国
  • フォーチュン100企業の80%以上がiPadを利用または検討中
  • iPadだけで、収益:$4.61B。iPad単体だけで$4.4B
  • 在庫4~6週間分
  • iOSデバイスの累積販売台数1億6000万台
  • 11月にiOS 4.2を公開した
  • iAdsには引き続き非常に満足している
  • 米国外にも進出済み(ヨーロッパと日本)
  • Appleリテールストア ― 収益$3.85B(前年のほぼ倍)
  • 中国の4店舗は来客、売上ともに最大級
  • 全世界で323店舗 ― 米国外が87店
  • $12M ― 1店舗当たりの平均売上
  • 四半期中に7570万人が来店
  • 総利益率38.5%(指針を上回る)
  • 現金:$59.7B(対前期比8.7%増)
  • 四半期中に交渉した3社のベンダーと長期の供給契約を結んだ

CFO Peter Oppenheimer、COO Tim Cook、財務責任者 Jerry WhistlerによるQ&A[原文のまま]

Q: How do you make sure you have enough iPhones?

TC: As I mentioned last quarter, we made a very bold bet on taking iPhone capacity to 14 million. Previously it was in the 8-ish range. In the past quarter it was now over 16 million. We’re working on increasing this further. But it takes time. We’re thrilled to be coming to Verizon. We’re going to do everything possible to get the iPhone into as many hands as possible.

Q: Mac App Store — best selling apps tend to be Apple-made ones. Any initial thoughts?

TC: It’s just getting going. But we’re thrilled with the million sales in such a short amount of time.

Q: How comfortable are you with the availability of iPhones and iPads? Shortages?

TC: On iPad, we increased dramatically last quarter — we expanded in number of countries. We’ve be over 60 countries soon. We feel good. With iPhone 4, I also feel good, but it’s not enough. We do still have a significant backlog. We’re working around the clock to build more. I feel great that demand is so high. But I can’t predict when supply will meet it. We think Verizon will be huge.

Q: What about Asia Pacific growth?

TC: Of Brazil, Russia, India, China — we several years ago targeted China as our top country. The numbers have been staggering. It’s mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. $2.6 billion from that area alone (up 4x from the prior year quarter). Korea has also been a very good market for us. iPhone and iPad are big there. Several other Asian countries doing very well. Japan by itself, the revenue is up 80% year over year. That’s stunning. We’re placing more and more resources in these areas.

Q: Long-term business planning. How far out do you guys plan? Product roadmap?

TC: That’s a part of the magic of Apple. I don’t want anyone to know our magic, so they don’t copy it. In my view, Apple is doing its best work ever. We’re all very happy with the product pipeline. Steve has driven this. “Excellence has become a habit.” We’ve done outstanding in our Mac business — 19 quarters straight of growing faster than the market. But we still have a low share. There’s still huge opportunity there. We have a low share in the handset market too. Huge opportunity there too. And incredible momentum there. iPad just got started — it’s a new category. Almost 15 million sold so far. I don’t know what to predict. We believe it’s a huge market. We’re in some great markets. We feel very confident.

Q: How many more iPhones could you have sold?

PO: You can’t run the experiment both ways. We couldn’t make enough. We would love to make more.

Q: Can you talk about what components were better in terms of price last quarter? What about next quarter?

TC: We expect favorable pricing for DRAM next quarter. Some prices for raw material is increasing due to the worldwide economy getting better. For other commodities, we expect things to fall in pricing as they normally do. Last quarter, we saw a favorable pricing trend. That helped us.

Q: Which component areas are you making investments in?

TC: I don’t want to give that out. I don’t want the competition knowing. We design components where we believe we can innovate — like the A4 chip.

Q: Is there something about the iPad going forward that would make it hard for margins to rise?

TC: Margins consist of a number of factors. You can’t really take on product and speak about it in accurate terms. We’re confident in the guidance.

PO: We shipped a lot of iPads last quarter and margin is pretty good.

Q: What about iPad competitors?

TC: There’s not much out there as you know. There are two kinds of groups today (in the market) — the ones using a Windows-based operating system. They’re big, heavy and expensive. Weak battery life. Need keyboard or stylus. From our point of view, customers aren’t interested in that. Then you have the Android tablets. The variety shipping today, the OS wasn’t designed for a tablet — but Google said this. So you wind up having the size of a tablet that’s less than reasonable. Or one that’s not even a real tablet experience. It’s a “scaled-up smartphone” – that’s a bizarre product in our view. Those are what is shipping today. If you do a side-by-side with an iPad, some enormous percentage are going to pick the iPad. We have no concern there. In terms of next generation. There’s nothing shipping yet. So I don’t know. “Today they’re vapor.” However, we’re not sitting still. We have a huge first-mover advantage. And a huge user advantage from iTunes to the App Store. Huge number of apps and an ecosystem. We’re very confident entering into a fight with anyone.

Q: Move to iPhone non-exclusivity has had no impact on ASP. Will that be the same in the U.S.? More CDMA carriers?

TC: I don’t anticipate the ASP decreasing, no. In terms of other carriers, we’re always looking. When we move from exclusive carrier to dual carrier, overall, our growth has changed and our market share has increased. That doesn’t mean in every country, it’s all different. We’re thrilled to be working with the Verizon team. We’re also happy about the multi-year non-exclusive deal with AT&T still.

Q: Why only one carrier in China?

TC: We always are looking at opportunities to grow. But remember we are constrained on iPhone 4.

Q: Can you give updated thoughts on the Mac side? And what about the upside of the iPad and cannibalization.

TC: What we saw in the Mac was 23% growth — we grew almost 8 times the market rate of growth. Every region outgrew the market, led by Asia-Pacific. That was up almost 10 times the market. We did significantly better than the market in all the major regions. Was there an cannibalization? “Honestly, I don’t know for sure. But yes, I think there is some cannibalization.” But I also think there’s a halo effect. It’s what we saw with the iPod and iPhone. “If this is cannibalization, it feels pretty good.” If our products do cannibalize the PC market, remember we have a low share still. So the other guys lose a lot more. We don’t worry about it here. The iPad team works on making their product the best. Same with the Mac. Both teams think they can continue to grow.

Q: What about different teams sharing ideas?

TC: Part of the magic of Apple is that there aren’t high walls among product groups. If one has a great idea, it gets spread around. With the iPad, people love instant on. So the MacBook Air incorporated that. That’s just one example, but there are plenty. It can start on the iPhone, the iPad, etc. I think Steve said it great — if the Mac company and the iPad company were separate, what would the Mac company build to compete with the iPad? The MacBook Air, I think.

Q: Do you have data on new people to the brand buying iPads?

TC: Of course we have that data. For iPhone, the number looks different because we’ve been shipping it for a while. iPad is now moving mainstream. That data needs to settle a bit still. We’re introducing a lot of people to Apple that haven’t been with us before.

Q: What about revenue outlook? Will Verizon help?

PO: We’re working hard to increase supply of iPhones, but it will take some time. In terms of sequential guidance, we’ll still be up huge year over year. We usually have declines after the holiday season though. We’re not sure about iPad though. We’ll see. The iPad was clearly a hot holiday item.

Q: Last call, Steve had a lot to say about Android. Any other observations?

TC: If you look at the iPhone portion, we had record sales — 16.2 million units in the quarter. We believe we could have sold more if we had more supply. We grew faster than the market. We’re continuing to expand countries and carriers. We’re getting big enterprise traction. We have the highest customer satisfaction ratings. Biggest App Store. Over 160 million iOS devices now. This is huge. We believe our integrated approach delivers a better experience over the fragmented approach. Look at the number of App Stores out there. People are going to “pull their hair out”. If you see who is on the latest OS, you’ll see we’re always way ahead (was Cook reading TechCrunch this morning?)

Q: What about future products?

PO: Sorry, we don’t talk about future products.

Q: What about the MacBook Air? How do you look at that?

TC: The way that we look at it is that it’s a phenomenal part of our growth of the Mac last quarter. The customers love it. We’re really happy with how it’s doing as a starting block. But we’ve only been shipping it for 90 days. We’re just getting going.

Q: What about the consumerization of enterprise technology? The iPhone and iPad at work.

TC: This is one of the “megatrends” going on. It’s more about employees doing what works than everyone using the same thing. You can run your whole business off of an iPad or iPhone. This was unimaginable just a few months ago. The potential is huge. The numbers are already incredible. The iPad only started shipping in April. We already have 80% of the largest companies trying it out at least. Generally enterprise is much slower, much more cautious. But to their credit, they’re seeing it. With iOS, we’ve been focusing on enterprise for a while. It’s paying off. There’s a huge play here for us.

That’s a wrap.

[原文へ]

(翻訳:Nob Takahashi)